The Miami Marlins have a prime mid-week series with the Washington Nationals to try and get back on track, especially after taking Game 1 12-2. The Marlins are throwing Sandy Alcantara, who has had a great start to the season at 6-2 with a 1.81 ERA, during Wednesday’s 6:40 p.m. ET start.
The Nationals start struggling young starter Josiah Gray, who is 6-4 with a 4.71 ERA. Though Gray has 17 strikeouts in 11.2 innings with a no-decision, the Nationals won and a loss in two starts against the Marlins this season.
Looking at the MLB odds, we can see that Marlins are moneyline favorites at -215 with the Nationals +175. The run line is Nationals +1.5 (-125) and Marlins -1.5 (+105). The over/under is set at 7.5 runs.
Matchup Information
Nationals at Marlins Stats
The Marlins (23-30) are 12.5 games behind the New York Mets in the NL East standings one-third of the way through the season. But the possibility for a wild card berth — with the expansion of a third spot — is not out of the realm of possibility. They are 13-14 at home and throw their best starter on Wednesday.
Washington (21-36) has dealt with injuries all season, and it has impacted their slow start. They are 12-18 on the road this year and have the second-worst pitching staff. A playoff run seems out of the realm of possibility with an offense that struggled to start the season.
Washington Nationals Stats
Nationals pitchers are allowing the second-most runs this season, giving up 5.78 runs per game. According to the MLB betting trends, opponents hit .275 with a .783 OPS against the staff, and those are also 29th among MLB pitching staffs. They also allow a fair amount of contact, ranking 23rd in strikeouts per game at 7.92 per contest.
Offensively, Washington is 22nd and scores 4.2 runs per game. But they are fourth in the league with a .254 average. The power hasn’t shown up, though, with a .697 OPS, ranking 18th.
Juan Soto has been a power source with 11 doubles and 12 home runs, but he’s only hitting .225. Nelson Cruz is hitting .253, but just five home runs so far. Josh Bell has been strong, hitting .296 with ten doubles and five home runs.
Miami Marlins Stats
Miami is trending toward the playoffs because of above-average hitting and league average pitching. Improvements on either end would elevate their chances.
They are 11th at scoring 4.58 runs per game and have a .246 average, ranking 10th. The OPS is .718, which ranks 14th.
Jazz Chisolm is heating up, hitting .252 with seven doubles, four triples, and ten home runs. He leads the team with 37 RBIs and is tied for a team-high 26 runs scored. Jorge Soler has 11 doubles and 12 home runs to go with his 26 runs scored. Garrett Cooper has also been impressive, hitting .305.
The pitching staff allows 4.25 runs per game, which is 15th, and are sixth in strikeouts per game at 9.12. They’re 10th at limiting teams to a .228 average.
Washington vs Miami Betting Trends
- Bettors are favoring the Marlins, with 78% taking their moneyline
- Bettors also like the under, with 53% favoring seven runs or fewer
- The over is 7-1 over the last eight meetings in Miami
- The Marlins are 6-1 in the last seven meetings regardless of location
- The under is 4-3 in the series so far this season
- The line opened with the Nationals at +203 and Marlins -225, but that has crept closer toward one another since
Nationals vs Marlins Predictions
Gray has a lot of promise as a young starter and came to Washington with battery mate Keibert Ruiz in the Trea Turner trade. He was highly sought after in other deals, and the Nationals were able to get a prospect thought of as a future ace. He has shown flashes of that potential but has yet to find consistency.
And while he’s given up runs to the Marlins in two outings this season, the strikeout numbers are worth noting. If he eliminates a couple of mistakes from those, he could be effective on Wednesday.
At some point, one would think Alcantara regresses toward his 3.19 ERA from last season, which is still very good. But this Nationals offense has struggled, and the key will be getting through Cesar Hernandez, Bell, Soto, and Cruz. Beyond them, it has been smooth sailing for opposing pitchers.
Miami’s offense had a breakout after scuffling a little bit, and it appears as though they’re finding their groove. Gray is going to be tough, and they’ll have to be disciplined, but there is reason to like the Marlins’ moneyline and the run line. Marlins are one of the better MLB picks today.
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