Hopefully, they check the goal lights are working before the game because it’s likely getting a workout tonight in Tampa. The Buffalo Sabres and Tampa Bay Lightning are two of the highest-scoring offenses in the NHL, scoring 19 total goals in their first two matchups this season.
We’ll review the stats, trends, and Sabres vs. Lightning odds before making our NHL expert picks.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
Before we review the important stats and trends to make our NHL picks, we need to review the Sabres vs. Lightning odds and betting records.
As expected, NHL odds have the Tampa Bay Lightning as heavy moneyline favorites, with odds from -225 to -250. The Buffalo Sabres are the underdog and are listed between +188 to +195. The Sabres have a 28-27 straight-up record, while the Lightning has a 36-20 straight-up record.
As the moneyline underdog, the Sabres are listed at +1.5 on the puck line spread, with odds from -125 to -130. The Lightning is listed at -1.5, with odds between +100 and +107. Buffalo has a 30-25 ats record, while Tampa Bay has a 27-29 ats record.
The total goals line is listed at 7.0 goals which is higher than normal for most NHL games, although you can find Sabres vs Lightning odds listed at the standard 6.5 total goals. However, we’re using the predominant total goals line of 7.0.
With the total goals line set at 7.0, the over is listed between +105 and +110, while the under is listed around -130. The Sabres have a 31-23-1 over/under record, while Tampa Bay has a 27-25-4 over/under record.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Matchup Information
Buffalo Sabres (28-23-4) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3)
Location of the Game: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
Date and Time: Thursday, February 23rd, 2023, 7:00 pm ET
How to Watch: NHLPP | ESPN+
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
This season, this is the second head-to-head matchup between these NHL teams and Atlantic division rivals. Both games on the NHL schedule this season have been high-scoring affairs, and Tampa Bay has won both.
Tampa Bay won the first matchup 5-3 on November 5th and the second game in overtime 6-5 on November 28th.
Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres enter Thursday night with a 28-23-4 record, ranked sixth in the Atlantic division NHL standings and 12th in the Eastern Conference, four points out of a Wild Card spot.
The Sabres had a two-game winning streak ended in their last game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, have lost three of the last five, and are 5-5 in the last ten. The Sabres have a 5-5 over/under record in the last ten games.
However, the over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five games. Historically, The Sabres aren’t great in Tampa Bay, posting a 5-16 record in the last 21 games in Tampa.
The Sabres are one of the most fun groups to watch on a game-by-game basis: you never know if the Sabres will win or not, but you know there will be a lot of scoring and fantastically bad defense.
The Sabres are one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NHL, ranked third, averaging 2.69 goals per game, while having the sixth-ranked power play, converting at 24.9%.
Buffalo’s Struggles on Defense and Penalty Kill
However, Buffalo’s defensive statistics are entirely on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Sabres are ranked 25th in the league and giving up 3.49 goals per game, while the penalty kill is ranked 30th and operating at 72.7%. Those are horrible stats for a team who could outscore its problems and contend for a playoff spot.
Tage Thompson has led the Buffalo Sabres player stats most of the season and currently has 72 points (36 goals, 36 assists). Alex Tuch has six points in the last five games.
We expect Craig Anderson to get the start against Tampa Bay on Thursday night. Anderson has an 8-7-2 record, a 2.80 GAA, and a .883 SV%.
Defenceman Kale Clague is the only player on the NHL injury report for the Sabres and is listed day-to-day.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning enters Thursday night with a 37-17-3 record, ranked third in the Atlantic Division but fifth overall in the NHL. Tampa Bay has won three of the last five games and is 6-4 in the last ten.
The Lightning are 6-1 in the last seven games against teams with winning records. Tampa Bay has a 5-4-1 over/under record in the last ten games.
The Lightning are ranked just behind the Sabres in scoring, ranked fourth and averaging 3.55 goals per game. Tampa Bay has the third-ranked powerplay, converting at 25.8%.
Tampa Bay’s Strong Defensive Game and Penalty Kill Success
However, it’s Tampa Bay’s overall game that has made the franchise as successful as it has been. Defensively, the Lightning are ranked 12th, averaging 2.88 goals-against per game, while having the tenth-ranked penalty kill, operating at 81.5%
Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in NHL player stats with 80 points (21 goals, 59 assists). Brayden Point leads the Lightning with 33 goals, while Anthony Cirelli has five points in the last five games.
We expect Andrei Vasilevskiy to get the start for the Lightning against the Sabre. The future Hall of Famer has a 27-14-1 record, a 2.53 GAA, and a .919 SV%.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Picks
Now that we have reviewed the stats, trends, and Sabres vs. Lightning odds, we need to make our NHL picks. However, we have two more betting trends for you to consider: the over is 6-1-1 in the last eight games and 5-2 in the last seven games in Tampa Bay.
Our first pick is to take the over. Tampa Bay has a future Hall of Famer and one of the best goalies in the NHL, but these two teams are among the highest-scoring offenses in the NHL and have hit the over in their first two matchups. We’re taking the over.
Our second pick is to take the Tampa Bay Lightning to win and cover the spread. Tampa Bay should win this game straight-up. They are the better team overall and should pick Buffalo’s terrible defense apart.
Buffalo will score and likely score three or four goals, but Tampa Bay will easily put five or six goals on the board and cover the spread in the process.
We’re taking the Lighting -1.5 and parlaying it with the moneyline to get a better value from Tampa Bay’s win.
- NHL Picks: Tampa Bay Lightning ML, Tampa Bay -1.5, Over.
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