The women’s draw for the 2023 French Open, the second Grand Slam on the tennis schedule, has gone mostly as expected. Iga Swiatek, a two-time winner at Roland Garros and the best clay court player on the WTA Tour, cruised to the final without dropping a single set.
While it was expected she would play Aryna Sabalenka in the final, the Belarusian lost to Czech Karolina Muchova in a stunning semifinal upset on Thursday.
Can Swiatek win her third title? Or will the unseeded Muchova continue her miracle run? Keep reading for more on Swiatek vs Muchova betting analysis.
Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova Information
Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova
Location of the Game: Stade Philippe Chatrier. Roland Garros.
Date and Time: Saturday, June 10. 9:00 a.m. ET.
How to Watch: Tennis Channel
Recent Scores
Swiatek finally faced a little resistance on Thursday in her semifinal match, but still beat Beatriz Haddad Maia in straight sets 6-2, 7-6 (9-7). It was the first tiebreak she faced in the tournament after dropping only 15 games in her first five matches. She beat American Coco Gauff 6-4, 6-2 in the quarter-final.
Muchova, meanwhile, outlasted Sabalenka in a grueling three-set match in the other semifinal on Thursday. She won 7-6 (7-5), 6-7 (5-7), 7-5 in a match that lasted more than three hours and featured plenty of wild swings. Sabalenka had the second-shortest French Open odds to win, so it’s quite the surprise to be looking into Swiatek vs Muchova betting analysis right now.
Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova Betting Analysis
Swiatek’s Dominance on Clay
Swiatek, for good reason, was the leading favorite tennis picks to win the 2023 French Open. If there’s anyone worthy of earning the “Queen of Clay” moniker it’s her. She has won at Roland Garros twice and is having another strong clay court season. Overall, she’s 34-6 this season and has two singles titles. The world No. 1 is 18-2 on clay this season, was 18-1 on clay last year, and is 120-17 on clay all-time.
Can Muchova Hold Up?
The big question when making French Open predictions for the final is whether or not Muchova can continue to play at the level she has displayed throughout the tournament. She was noticeably limping in her semifinal match against Sabalenka, yet overcame a 5-2 third-set deficit to win the match in shocking fashion.
So, for Swiatek vs Muchova betting analysis, the most important thing to look at is time on court. Swiatek has played just two fewer sets than Muchova but has been on court for only 7 hours and 41 minutes compared to Muchova, who has been on court for 12 hours and four minutes.
Key Injuries
One year ago, doctors told Muchova she may not be able to play sports anymore after rolling her ankle in the third round at Roland Garros. She’s healthy and ready to go for tomorrow’s final, despite looking in pain on Thursday, but it’s worth keeping her status in mind when thinking about tennis best bets.
Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova Betting Preview
Moneyline: Swiatek is a -750 favorite, while Muchova is paying out +600.
Handicap: The games handicap is -5.5 (-138) for Swiatek and +5.5 (+100) for Muchova.
Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova Betting Prediction
Swiatek will win this. It’s hard not to be confident about that pick considering how good she is on clay and how much more rested she is than Muchova. With that said, Muchova is 5-0 in her career against opponents ranked inside the top three on the WTA Tour.
While that’s a cool stat, it doesn’t mean she’ll beat Swiatek. She should, however, play well enough to at least make it a decent match. Muchova to cover +5.5 games or the total games over 19.5 (-138) are solid betting options.
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