On August 20, the UFC schedule has a pay-per-view event back in Utah. UFC 278 will be headlined by a welterweight title fight between the world pound-for-pound king, Kamaru Usman (20-1) and Leon Edwards (19-3).
This will be the rematch of these two fighters with the first matchup dating back to 2015, where Usman won via unanimous decision.
Fighters Previous Scoreboards
Kamaru Usman is currently on a 19-fight winning streak, including 6-0 in title fights in his last 6 times making the walk to the UFC octagon.
Leon Edwards is on an impressive 10-fight unbeaten streak since losing to Usman the first time. He had a dominating decision victory over Nate Diaz in his last time out.
Usman vs. Edwards Betting Analysis
Usman Analysis
One rule that seems to hold true in MMA betting currently: if you are making UFC picks, do not bet against Kamaru Usman.
The man has proven doubters wrong again, and again. I can’t believe in his last few fights there were still people out there talking about Usman having a chance to lose. He simply dominates the best in the world.
Lap the Division
Usman is in the stage of his career where he was starting to just lap the division. I think Leon Edwards is a little boring for Usman.
So this is something to really keep an eye on during fight week while you’re making picks. Usman needs to be focused and take this fight as seriously as any of his big title fights.
Leon Edwards Analysis
Leon Edwards has a very unique opportunity this weekend. I think Edwards is set up to take this belt away from Usman if anybody could right now.
The issue is whether will he use this opportunity to jump on the current champion and steal his belt.
I get the vibe that his fight week is not very big, for the fans and for Usman. Usman is coming off surgery and is facing someone he had a boring decision victory over back in 2015.
Usman in the Cage
Edwards has experienced feeling like Usman in the cage, he has been training for this fight for years now trying to earn the opportunity, and he is much healthier physically than Usman.
We know Usman can’t even run in his training camps usually because of his knees, now you need to think about how he was able to spar or hit mitts with his hand issues leading up to this one.
Edwards is a very skilled, all-around mixed martial artist that can really strike from his range and will have the skill to weather any storm that comes his way on Saturday night.
Usman vs. Edwards Betting Preview
According to UFC odds, Usman is a pretty big favorite at -380. This is not a surprise with all the fighters that Usman has taken out recently and he also dominated Edwards in their first matchup.
Edwards has a lot of value at +315 going into this one. He has plenty of ability to be a champion in the UFC, +315 is a lot.
MMA odds don’t usually show a +315 underdog in a title fight. This is a tough matchup for Edwards, as it is for everyone else, but you need to look for ways that Edwards can win this bout.
He needs to come out fast and sharp early. His pressure needs to be there, and be prepared to be there for all 25 minutes.
Edwards Massive Mistake
If Edwards isn’t in the best shape of his life right now, that is a massive mistake on his end. We know Usman is going to show up like the professional champion he is, but can Edwards take advantage of anything that might come up on Saturday?
It could be anything. A freak injury, which is common in MMA, or even a miscalculation on Usman’s end.
Edwards has a chance to beat Usman on Saturday and everybody needs to understand that. +315 is a lot of value for Edwards in this situation and it is worth thinking about making a play on those odds.
Usman vs. Edwards Betting Predictions
No matter how much I talk about the freak injuries or the odds that Usman doesn’t show up 100% on Saturday, I promised myself I would never bet against Usman in the octagon.
When you compare every aspect of the fight game between both these men, it is clear to see that Usman is on a different level.
His striking is elite right now after working with legendary coach, Trevor Whittman now for awhile. He also has an endless gas tank, with elite wrestling skills that he seemingly can pull out at any time to win.
Who to Bet On?
The odds are just too much against Edwards to be able to steal one away from the champion. But we have seen it before, so it is something to think about.
Oh, and expect a finish by Usman to prove his doubters wrong again.
UFC Pick: Usman wins by TKO (+275)
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