Up next on the UFC schedule, UFC Fight Night is back, with the headliner bout being a top strawweight fight between Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) and Amanda Lemos (12-2-1).
This fight is now the main event after a UFC fight scheduled to headline the Fight Night card after the main event fell through.
Betting on two high-level women like this calls for an in-depth Rodriguez vs. Lemos betting analysis.
Last Fight Record
Marina Rodriguez is coming off a big win over Xiaonan Yan back in March via a split decision.
Amanda Lemos is fresh off a win this summer over Michelle Waterson-Gomez, where she locked up the win with a guillotine choke.
Matchup Information
- November 5, 2022
- 6 PM ET
- UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
- Watch on ESPN+
Rodriguez vs. Lemos Betting Analysis
Marina Rodriguez
To kick off the Rodriguez vs. Lemos betting analysis, we need to talk about the betting favorite and her impressive run after losing to current champion Carla Esparza in 2020.
Rodriguez is one of the slickest strikers in women’s MMA and will continue to prove that as she keeps fighting highly-ranked fighters.
Looking past Lemos is a big problem with her power, but Rodriguez has to think she can win this fight and get back to a matchup with Esparza and even be able to give Rose Namajunas a great fight.
Rodriguez’s Good Guard
Rodriguez has also shown she has a very good guard off her back that she uses to protect herself from a lot of damage if she gets taken down.
Lemos is a very good grappler, but Rodriguez is just good enough that the respect factor kicks in and might lead to a full fight of just striking on the feet.
Amanda Lemos
Lemos is one of the most dangerous fighters in the strawweight division. Only 3 of her 15 career fights have gone to the scorecards.
She has vicious one-punch knockout power and can really threaten Rodriguez in many positions on Saturday night.
She showed her guillotine in her last bout and how strong she is both in grappling and in her punching power. The thing that makes her struggle at times is her lack of volume.
Potential Mental Block
She will go minutes at a time without letting her hands go. If she can get over this potential mental block, she could really impose her will on fellow strawweight fighters.
This is a big step up in competitions for Lemos, and it will really prove that she is ready for that next step up.
Look for whether she starts slow to keep the pace of a short-notice 25-minute fight or if she will chase a finish early so she doesn’t need her cardio in the later rounds.
Updates
There are no updates for this main event bout. No injuries were reported to the NSAC.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos Betting Preview
According to UFC odds, Marina Rodriguez is the betting favorite, with odds at -205. Lemos is the underdog against the hottest fighter in the strawweight division, riding a 4-fight win streak.
After breaking down the Rodriguez vs. Lemos betting analysis, the prop bets for this fight are very interesting.
Plus-money and Great Value
There is a lot of plus-money and great value in props for either woman to finish the fight inside the distance.
If you have the extra money in the bankroll at the sportsbook, it might be worth throwing money down on one or two.
The reason for that is we don’t know how these two will come out on Saturday. Will Lemos have trust in her cardio to go 25 minutes? Or will she go out and try to stop Rodriguez early?
A Skilled Fighter
Rodriguez is a more skilled fighter; it is up to her to make Lemos fight the fight she wants. Rodriguez needs to control the octagon and the pace of the fight.
With betting trends the way they are for Lemos, this fight seems to have a good chance of not going the distance. That alone is worth a bet on the fight finishing before it goes to the scorecards on Saturday night.
Rodriguez vs. Lemos Betting Predictions
According to the Rodriguez vs. Lemos betting analysis, making UFC picks for this one is pretty tricky. The safest bet is to go with Rodriguez to win. For your best chance to win big money, let’s go into ways this fight can go.
Rodriguez will be safe on the ground against Lemos. Her guard is very good, and she is willing to lose a round on the scorecards if she can keep Lemos in her guard and take no damage, as well as gain a rest to be able to go the complete five rounds.
Also, Rodriguez uses her footwork very well. I think it will be tough for Lemos to cut off the octagon, even if it is the smaller cage used at the APEX.
Who to Bet On?
Rodriguez can fight behind her leg kicks and jab and find a pinpoint accurate counter shot to hurt Lemos when she rushes in.
This fight could be a quick one or a very slow-paced one, with both women having respect for each other and the fear of gassing out over the 25-minute main event.
UFC Pick: Rodriguez (-220)
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