Looking ahead to this weekend on the UFC fight schedule, we have a loaded Fight Night card in Orlando, Florida.
One of the feature bouts on the main card is a flyweight matchup between two top-10 fighters, Matheus Nicolau (18-3-1) and Matt Schnell (16-6).
Let’s break down this fight and figure out what the best Nicolau vs Schnell betting picks to go with this weekend.
Last Fight Record
Nicolau is on a 5-fight winning streak, including a decision victory over David Dvorak in his last appearance in the octagon.
Schnell is coming off of one of the best comeback wins in the last few years against Su Mudaerji in July of this year. He won via triangle choke in the second round.
Nicolau vs. Schnell Betting Analysis
Matheus Nicolau
Nicolau is a very technical fighter out of Brazil. He will be coming in a few inches shorter than Schnell but won’t look much smaller from the human eye in the octagon.
Nicolau’s Striking
Nicolau’s striking is sharp and technical, but it sometimes looks like he is robotic during fights.
He averages 3.64 strikes landed per minute, and he absorbs 3.09 strikes in that minute as well. Nicolau is a solid striker but is able to get hit cleanly by opponents if they find their timing.
He has shown that he can hurt his opponents on the feet, but he only has four KOs in his 18-win career.
Nicolau’s Tendencies
Wrestling is where Nicolau tends to grind out decisions on scorecards. He averages 1.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 93% takedown defense.
The Brazilian will be plenty comfortable to level change and engage in clinches up against the fence with hopes to take this fight to the ground. He has five submission victories in his career.
Matt Schnell
Matt Schnell is one of the more exciting fighters to watch in the UFC. He has really brought some more excitement to the flyweight division and has made it a much deeper division than in years past.
In the two previous fights Schnell has in 2022, there has been chaos from the moment the fight starts in round 1.
A High-pace Striker
Schnell is a wild, high-pace striker that uses mostly volume and pressure to be successful on the feet. What he lacks in technical skill to Nicolau, he makes up for with durability and pressure.
He averages 4.34 strikes per minute but also absorbs 4.44 strikes. He only has two KOs in his career.
Where Schnell is the most dangerous is in the grappling exchanges. He has an impressive nine submission victories out of his 16 wins in MMA, including three out of his last four wins.
His wrestling isn’t on Nicolau’s level, but Schnell will look to wrap something up on his opponent’s neck at any moment he has. It will be very dangerous to engage with him in any sort of grappling.
Updates
No injuries were reported heading into this fight.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell Betting Preview
UFC odds have Nicolau as a pretty big -370 betting favorite going into this weekend. Schnell is the +295 underdog, which is a very interesting number for a guy that seems to thrive in the underdog role.
Fighters’ Difference
The difference between these two fighters is that Nicolau fights to win, and Schnell fights to put on a great performance. Schnell wants to win, but he wants to fight hard and chase a finish.
These two styles of fighting can have their own downfalls for both athletes.
Nicolau vs Schnell betting previews are going to mostly involve the technical skill level and statistics of Nicolau as the deciding factor of who you should bet on in this fight. I don’t think that is all you should look at.
Schnell is so durable and seems to only be getting better every time he steps into the octagon. He is going to have trouble with Nicolau because he probably won’t trick him into getting into a brawl.
Schnell’s Ability
Schnell has a great ability to get his opponents to start following him around the octagon and then lands a big shot with his foot planted into the canvas and a man walking onto his shot.
If Schnell wants to win this fight, it is going to have to be a finish. Nicolau is going to be too technical and smart about what he does in the octagon and will win a decision if Schnell can’t pull something off.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell Betting Predictions
UFC picks are so challenging to make because of the unpredictable nature of the sport. Schnell could snatch the neck of Nicolau in 20 seconds, and all this breaking down of this fight would be a waste.
Both of these fighters bring something different to the table, and that makes this a great matchup to watch.
Who to Bet On?
The final Nicolau vs Schnell betting prediction is that Schnell will come out victorious. This is a tough betting pick to make because of how solid of a fighter Nicolau is and the odds, but you might as well take those big underdog odds on a guy that is more than able to win this one.
Usually, this is one of those fights with strange odds that you stay away from, so bet responsibly. But, I predict we see Schnell being very dangerous from his guard when Nicolau takes him down.
Along with that, Schnell will break Nicolau on the feet with his constant pressure and cardio, lasting for all 15 minutes.
UFC Pick: Matheus Nicolau (-380)
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