In the last live-crowd Fight Night event on the 2022 UFC fight schedule, UFC legend Rafael dos Anjos (31-14) will be taking on Bryan Barberena (18-8) in the co-main event.
This fight will be taking place in Orlando, Florida at the Amway Center. In dos Anjos’ return to welterweight, this matchup is going to be a perfect fan-friendly bout to set the table for the main event.
Read further to learn about this matchup, get a betting analysis, and a dos Anjos vs Barberena betting prediction.
Last Fight Record
Dos Anjos is coming off a tough 5th-round KO loss to top-10 lightweight Rafael Fiziev in July.
Barberena is fresh off making a name for himself to the casual fan by brutally stopping legend Robbie Lawler in July.
Dos Anjos vs. Barberena Betting Analysis
Rafael dos Anjos
Being a former UFC hall of famer, it is interesting to think about what reason dos Anjos is still competing for.
He stated that he wanted one more run at the lightweight bout, but now he’s fighting at welterweight at 38 years old.
Even though he will be giving up quite the size difference to Barberena, dos Anjos is one of the most skilled all-around fighters ever.
The former UFC champion is still very dangerous towards the end of his career.
dos Anjos’ Biggest Threat
The biggest threat that dos Anjos has in this fight is his grappling. He averages 1.96 takedowns per fight in the UFC with 34% accuracy.
His experience will reign supreme in this matchup as well; averaging over 14 minutes per fight and having 45 professional career fights.
Bryan Barberena
Barberena is someone that true UFC fans will always enjoy watching. He gets into wars seemingly every time he steps foot in the octagon.
He is a high-volume fighter, averaging 6.11 strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 5.01. He will take shots to give them.
The long-time welterweight will have a size advantage, and an age advantage in the cage on Saturday.
Barberena’s Possible Advantage
If Barberena can use his durability and cardio in his advantage over an older RDA, this fight can be a lot close than oddsmakers think.
Barberena has never been submitted in the UFC and only has been finished twice, both happening in 2019 to Vincente Luque, and Randy Brown.
13 out of the 18 wins under Barberena’s belt have come with a finish. He will always come forward and chase a win before the scorecards can get involved.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Bryan Barberena Betting Preview
Before getting to a dos Anjos vs Barberena betting prediction, lets preview this matchup.
UFC Odds Breakdown
UFC odds have dos Anjos as a massive -550 betting favorite this weekend. Barberena is the +420 underdog against the former champion.
The over 2.5 rounds is set at -185; probably because dos Anjos hasn’t fought for less than 2.5 rounds since 2017. Barberena hasn’t since 2018.
dos Anjos’ Power
Also, it’s a question if dos Anjos’ power translates well to the welterweight division. Less than half of dos Anjos’ wins have came via finish.
With the way that these two styles clash, it is safe to say dos Anjos will focus a lot on wrestling this weekend.
Barberena’s Struggle
Barberena has struggled in the past against wrestlers and that has been how he has lost against the top guys.
Wrestling and disciplined striking techniques have been able to beat Barberenos.
Barberenos has dropped guys like Leon Edwards and Vincente Luque, only being seconds away from a finish and a totally different career path. This is something that he needs to finish off if he catches RDA on Saturday night.
Dos Anjos has probably seen Colby Covington’s 12-takedown performance against Barberena and sees that as the easiest path to victory. We have to assume Barberena has gotten better in that area and is prepared.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Bryan Barberena Betting Predictions
Making UFC picks for fights with these kinds of odds is super difficult. Dos Anjos is a massive betting underdog with a ton of experience and skill, but Barberena will not go away for all 15-minutes and seems to be really hitting his strike in this phase of his career.
One big factor is that this is the first 3-round fight dos Anjos is doing for quite some time, and he isn’t cutting down to the lightweight limit. So the physical side of this matchup kind of cancels out.
With these odds, you usually stay away from a pick because there isn’t a lot of value in this fight.
But for the official dos Anjos vs Barberena betting prediction, I will have to go with dos Anjos winning via decision.
Who to Bet On?
With over -500 odds, making a bet on him is tough. If you have extra change to play with, Barberena is probably one of the best underdog picks at those lines that you can ever make.
He will never be out of the fight no matter how much he’s losing by, and he is one punch away from hurting his opponent and turning on the pressure.
UFC Pick: Rafael dos Anjos (-550)
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