The Miami Marlins know they need to rise in the MLB standings. Their boss, general manager Kim Ng, who is the first woman general manager in the major American professional sports leagues, said she expects them to be in the playoffs this season.
Those are lofty goals for an organization that has made the playoffs once in the last 13 seasons. It is also lofty considering the majority of games on the MLB schedule come against the New York Mets, Atlanta Braves, and Philadelphia Phillies, three teams loaded up on talent.
In the competitive National League East division, the Washington Nationals are +15000 to win the division. The 2023 Marlins season odds are at +3000. The aforementioned trio of teams range from +350 to +120, which tells you what oddsmakers think of Ng’s claims.
But the way Ng has constructed this year’s roster is targeted at the new rules implemented by Major League Baseball, being an early adapter. This has worked for the Florida rival Tampa Bay Rays, and could pay off for Ng and the Marlins. But keeping a healthy MLB injury report will be a key part of that, too.
Before looking ahead, here is a reminder of how the Marlins stats fared in 2022.
2022 Recap
The Marlins were third worst among MLB teams in scoring 3.62 runs per game last season. That was with the 10th-oldest lineup in the league at 28.8 years old.
Obviously, the offensive numbers are going to have to improve in order to compete in the NL East and for a wildcard spot.
Miami was below the league average in each of the extra-base hits categories. However, its 122 stolen bases was second, and that is a key moving forward.
The pitching staff was solid, ranking 12th while allowing 4.17 runs per game. The starting rotation featured the NL Cy Young winner in Sandy Alcantara. They also had a 3.90 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), meaning there was room for growth. Both of those numbers were well above the league average.
So, how does a team that was 69-93 a season ago make an improvement of 12 wins to get to .500, let alone contend for a postseason spot?
Targeting New Rules
It has been 20 years since the Marlins last won a World Series championship. The MLB player stats then looked a lot different than they have since, and more different than they will in the future.
Perhaps the 2023 Marlins season odds are a little light. But the Braves and Mets won 101 games last season. Also, the Phillies reached the World Series, so the MLB picks should probably favor those three teams after all.
But the case for the Marlins has nothing to do with what is in the past, and rather what the MLB’s new rules will impact. One of those is believed to be base stealing.
There are bigger bases for the safety of players. These work as much to protect fielders trying to convert double plays as they do for base stealers trying not to injure their hands. But the bigger bases also mean a slightly shorter distance to get from base to base.
Potential Pitching Challenges with the Introduction of New Timing Rules and Pitch Clocks
With the new pitch clocks and timing rules affecting pitchers, there could be more distractions as pickoff moves are limited. They can not vary their delivery times very much.
“A lot of pitchers are going to make a lot of mistakes this year because they’re falling behind in counts and not focusing,” Jazz Chisholm Jr. told the New York Times. “It’s going to get in a lot of guys’ heads, the pitch clocks.”
The man who graces the cover of MLB The Show is moving to center field in an effort to keep him healthier. He is one of those players who could set the table along with new third baseman Jean Segura or the speedy Jon Berti, who led the league with 41 steals last season.
Ng also traded for American League batting champion Luis Arraez, who may get even more hits after MLB’s ban on infielders shifting. That should create more holes for pull hitters and allow for more station to station baseball.
“I feel like we’re just going to wreak havoc in every way,” Chisholm said.
Vaunted Pitching Staff
The Marlins have had a great pitching staff and have more coming, and the Marlins player stats back that up.
Alcantara is among the favorites to win the Cy Young award again and is joined by Jesus Luzardo, who returns from an injury, Edward Cabrera, a top prospect who showed flashes before getting injured, a former first-round pick in Trevor Rogers, and new free agent signing Johnny Cueto, who is coming off his best season since 2016.
While Pablo Lopez was traded away to land Arraez, Ng also made deals to bolster the bullpen. This includes landing Matt Barnes after the Boston Red Sox designated him for assignment and trading promising prospect J.J. Bleday to the Oakland Athletics for southpaw A.J. Puk. This adds to Tanner Scott’s dominance a season ago.
Added Depth
One of the reasons Ng was able to make these trades was to bolster depth with some tweaks. Adding Segura and Arraez filled out the infield, with Berti needing a home and Joey Wendle factoring in at middle infield. Perhaps Arraez plays first base to get Wendle at second, and Garrett Cooper can be the designated hitter.
But there are options, including prospect Jordan Groshans potentially filling an infield spot throughout the season. Another promising pitching prospect in Eury Perez may be the first called-up if a starting pitcher gets injured.
Berti could also factor into the outfield with Chisholm and cover a lot of ground, but Avisail Garcia is slated for the right field – though he is a designated hitter candidate – and Bryan De La Cruz is in the other corner outfield spot with Jesus Sanchez waiting to fill in.
Of course, the powerful Jorge Soler will likely be the full-time designated hitter that is the big bopper in the middle of the lineup to drive the speedsters in. The formula for the Marlins is targeted at MLB’s new rules, and it is something that can convince fans that they will win more MLB games.
It is not going to be easy to change that public perception, but Ng and her staff have smartly targeted the new rules. That may lead to people cashing in on the 2023 Marlins season odds, after all.
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