Surging Red Sox Look to Cool off Padres
The Boston Red Sox, winners of eight of their last 10 games, host the San Diego Padres for a three-game weekend series at Fenway Park. At 43-37, Boston is a season-high six games above .500 and in the thick of the American League wild card race.
Injuries have been a recurring issue for the Red Sox, with first baseman Triston Casas, outfielders Tyler O’Neill and Wilyer Abreu and pitchers Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta all spending time on the IL. But they remain resilient.
Coincidentally, the San Diego Padres have been similarly hot. They went 6-1 on their recent homestand against Milwaukee and Washington to improve to 7-3 over their last 10. At 44-41, they’re a fixture in the NL postseason picture.
Now, they must overcome the absence of star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who is expected to miss several weeks because of a stress reaction in his right thigh bone. Tatis, who was hitting .279 with 14 homers and 36 RBI, had been dealing with the MBL injury report for most of the season. It wasn’t until recently, however, that they discovered the severity of the issue.
Who has the edge? Read on as we break down the series and make our Padres vs Red Sox picks.
Padres vs Red Sox Information
SD Padres (44-41) vs BOS Red Sox (43-37)
Location of the game: Fenway Park; Boston
Date & Time: Friday, June 28, 7:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Apple TV+
Previous Meeting:
The San Diego Padres beat the Boston Red Sox 7-0 on May 21, 2023.
SD Padres vs BOS Red Sox Picks
![Boston Red Sox Logo](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20width='500'%20height='500'%20viewBox='0%200%20500%20500'%3E%3C/svg%3E)
- Pick: Red Sox -154
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Odds to win Padres-Red Sox
1Run Line:
Padres: +1.5 (-170)
Red Sox: -1.5 (+140)
2Moneyline
Padres: +130
Red Sox: -154
3Total:
Over 9.5 (-105)
Under 9.5 (-115)
Padres-Red Sox Betting Analysis
With Pivetta (4-4, 4.06 ERA) opposing Randy Vazquez (2-4, 5.10 ERA), Boston is a moneyline favorite for the sixth time in seven games. The Red Sox are 3-2 OU in their previous five contests, not including Wednesday’s suspended game.
Despite Boston’s struggles at home (19-21), the odds aren’t surprising. The Red Sox have the edge on the mound, not to mention they’re also healthier.
Be sure to keep an eye on the free MLB BetUS odds.
Padres-Red Sox Previous Results and Betting Trends
San Diego has covered the run line in seven of its last nine games to improve to 43-42. Despite their recent success, the Padres remain far more profitable on the road (25-14) compared to at home (18-28). Remember that when analyzing any MLB expert picks.
At 36-44, Boston has been a liability against the run line. In fact, Boston’s 45% cover rate is the fourth-lowest in baseball, ahead of the White Sox (43.9), Twins (43.8), and Marlins (42.5).
Like the San Diego Padres, the Red Sox have been a better bet on the road. Their record against the run line away from Fenway Park is 23-17.
It’s important to remember these trends when making your Padres vs Red Sox picks.
Padres Last 5 Games
- June 26, 2024: 8-5 win over Washington Nationals
- June 25, 2024: 9-7 win over Washington Nationals
- June 24, 2024: 7-6 (10 innings) win over Washington Nationals
- June 23, 2024: 6-2 loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- June 22, 2024: 6-4 win over Milwaukee Brewers
Red Sox Last 5 Games
- June 25, 2024: 9-4 loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- June 24, 2024: 7-6 win over Toronto Blue Jays
- June 23, 2024: 7-4 win over Cincinnati Reds
- June 22, 2024: 4-3 win over Cincinnati Reds
- June 21, 2024: 5-2 loss at Cincinnati Reds
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Padres-Red Sox Betting Picks
Boston is rounding into form after an inconsistent start, with outfielder Jarren Duran (.831 OPS, 20 SB) serving as a spark plug atop the lineup. With Vazquez on the hill, this is a good opportunity for the Red Sox to stay hot and continue their push for a playoff spot.
As such, for our Padres vs Red Sox pick, we’re taking the Red Sox at -154 on the moneyline. For bettors seeking juicier odds, the -1.5 run line at +140 is also a possibility.
Discover the latest stats and trends of this matchup here:
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