One of the most exciting upcoming UFC fights this weekend, at the stacked UFC 298 event in Anaheim, is this co-main event bout between middleweight contenders Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa. The winner will put themself back into the title mix after losing dramatically to Israel Adesanya years ago.
Whittaker vs. Costa Picks
![UFC Logo](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20width='300'%20height='200'%20viewBox='0%200%20300%20200'%3E%3C/svg%3E)
- Pick: Whittaker by decision +130.
Read more for the official Whittaker vs Costa prediction before placing any bets on this weekend’s PPV card.
Robert Whittaker vs Paulo Costa Information
Robert Whittaker vs Paulo Costa
Location of the fight: Honda Center, Anaheim, California, United States
Date and Time: February 17, 2024.10 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV
Last Fight Record
Whittaker is coming off a tough second-round TKO loss to Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 290 last July.
Costa is making his first appearance in a year and a half when he beat Luke Rockhold at UFC 278 in August 2022, via decision.
Robert Whittaker vs Paulo Costa Betting Analysis
Robert Whittaker
Whittaker is an Australian mixed martial artist with a professional record of 24-7, including 9 TKO/KO victories and 5 submissions. At 33 years old, he is the former UFC middleweight champion and an 8-time post-fight bonus winner. He is one of the most well-rounded martial artists in the company, competing at a high level in wrestling, and also earning black belts in multiple traditional disciplines.
“Bobby Knuckles” is a 6’0” orthodox freestyle fighter with a 73” reach. He averages 4.47 significant strikes landed per minute and absorbs an average of 3.39. His 60% striking defense is one of the best in the company. Whittaker also averages 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a solid 82% takedown defense.
Paulo Costa
Costa is a Brazilian fighter with a professional MMA record of 14-2, including 11 TKO/KO wins and 1 submission under his belt. The 32-year-old has competed for a world title once in 2020 and has won 4 post-fight bonuses in the UFC. He was the Jungle Fight middleweight champion before signing with the UFC.
Costa is listed as a 6’1” orthodox striker with a 72” reach and has a 10:40 average fight time. He fights at a high pace, averaging 6.50 significant strikes landed and 6.38 absorbed per minute in the octagon. He controls the fight pretty well with a 79% takedown defense when opponents have enough of him hitting them.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.
Robert Whittaker vs Paulo Costa Betting Preview
Now it’s time to preview the betting UFC odds for this bout and to study film on both of these world-class athletes to make the correct Whittaker vs Costa prediction this weekend.
According to UFC fight odds, Whittaker is coming in as a -270 betting favorite over the +230 Brazilian fan favorite. Oddly, this bout is favored to go the distance at -135 and both guys have plus-odds to win inside the distance at BetUs.
Stylistically, this is an interesting matchup. Whittaker is the more all-around skilled fighter with lots to choose from in his arsenal, but that could potentially be tough to carry into a fight against a brawler like Costa.
Costa will move forward and try to pressure Whittaker against the cage to keep him in one spot, then he will use his power to hurt the Aussie to the body with hooks and kicks. Whittaker is a better mover and more technical with his offensive output. These different styles clashing make for a very tough time betting on fights and making UFC picks.
A massive factor in this matchup is what could be going on in the heads of both fighters. Whittaker is embarrassed for not taking Du Plessis seriously in their fight last summer and has made it clear that he won’t make that mistake again. Costa has barely fought the last 4 years and seems to always have something holding him back.
Robert Whittaker vs Paulo Costa Best Bets and Prediction.
When it’s time for UFC fight night, there isn’t a better matchup to watch than these two. They both collect performance bonuses for a living and seemingly never put on boring fights for the fans.
The official Whittaker vs Costa prediction is that Whittaker will win a decision with a potential Fight of the Night as well. The toughness and output of Costa will force Whittaker to put himself in harm’s way to score, but he needs to be moving better than he ever has.
The reasoning behind this pick for Whittaker is his professionalism, maybe even more so than his skills. He is focused and doesn’t want to lose to someone who isn’t on his level ever again.
Costa has constantly been unprofessional with canceled fights, coming to fight week overweight, and always has fans guessing with his goofy cryptic posts on social media. Is he really prepared and willing to check every box to win a fight at this level? We will see on Saturday.
- Pick: Whittaker by decision +130.
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.