Last-Place Cubs Favored Against Rookie Pitcher
The Philadelphia Phillies, owners of baseball’s best record at 55-29, open a three-game series Tuesday (8:05 p.m. ET) against the Chicago Cubs at historic Wrigley Field. Michael Mercado, the organization’s No. 30 prospect per MLB Pipeline, will slide into the rotation to make his first Major League start following injuries to Taijuan Walker (finger) and Spencer Turnbull (lat).
Philadelphia holds an eight-game lead on Atlanta atop the National League East and has outscored opponents by a Major League-best 121 runs.
Even after losing Bryce Harper (hamstring) and Kyle Schwarber (groin) to the 10-day injured list, the Phillies remain a bona fide contender with +550 World Series odds. Only the Dodgers (+310) and Yankees (+475) are bigger favorites.
The Cubs, meanwhile, are fading fast. Losers of six of their last eight games, they’re a season-worst seven games under .500 at 39-46. That’s good for last place in the NL Central.
Sitting 11.5 games behind Milwaukee, they are moving closer to becoming sellers later this month.
Let’s take a closer look at the Phillies vs Cubs betting odds and picks.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Information
Philadelphia Phillies (55-29) vs Chicago Cubs (39-46)
Location of the game: Wrigley Field; Chicago
Date & Time: Tuesday, July 2, 2024; 8:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: TBS
Phillies vs Cubs Picks
![Philadelphia Phillies Logo](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20width='500'%20height='500'%20viewBox='0%200%20500%20500'%3E%3C/svg%3E)
- Pick: Phillies +110
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Phillies at Cubs Betting Analysis
Before our Phillies betting analysis and Cubs game predictions, check out the updated MLB odds:
1Moneyline:
Philadelphia Phillies +110
Chicago Cubs -130
2Total:
9.5 runs (+100 Over/-122 Under)
3Runline:
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-182)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+150)
With an unproven starter in Mercado on the hill, Philadelphia’s string of 13 straight games being favored ends. The last time the Phillies were underdogs was June 16 at Baltimore (+124).
The Over/Under of 9.5 is among the highest projected totals on the night, behind only Milwaukee/Colorado at Coors Field (11.0).
Phillies at Cubs Betting Preview & Updates
Phillies Withstanding Health Issues
![Philadelphia Phillies Logo](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20width='500'%20height='500'%20viewBox='0%200%20500%20500'%3E%3C/svg%3E)
On the heels of a four-game split against Miami, the Phillies will be without two of their biggest bats in Harper and Schwarber. Despite those injuries, there remains enough production in their lineup that it shouldn’t matter. The Phillies (6-4 over their last 10 games) rank second in the NL in runs scored (420) and third in home runs (99).
On top of that, they have been among the majors’ most profitable teams for bettors with a 45-39 record against the run line. Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the Phillies vs Cubs betting odds and picks.
Cubs’ Lineup Goes Cold
![Chicago Cubs Logo](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20width='500'%20height='500'%20viewBox='0%200%20500%20500'%3E%3C/svg%3E)
What could go wrong, has gone wrong for the Chicago Cubs. They went just 11-16 in June, concluding the month in the NL Central cellar. Sunday’s 7-1 loss to Milwaukee capped a 2-5 road trip in which the Cubs averaged just 3.0 runs per game.
Cody Bellinger has been among the biggest culprits. The former NL MVP, who signed a three-year, $80 million extension over the offseason, has only nine homers and a .743 OPS. The Cubs rank just 19th in baseball in runs scored (347) per MLB stats.
They’ve also been a liability for bettors, as evidenced by their 39-46 mark against the run line.
Phillies vs Cubs Recent Scores
The Philadelphia Phillies split a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park against the Marlins, moving to 6-4 over their last 10 games.
The Cubs, meanwhile, dropped two of three in Milwaukee to fall to 3-7 over their last 10 games.
This is the teams’ first matchup since June 29, 2023, a 3-1 Philadelphia win at Wrigley Field.
Philadelphia Phillies Last 6
- June, 25, 2024: 4-1 loss at Detroit Tigers
- June 26, 2024: 6-2 win at Detroit Tigers
- June 27, 2024: 7-4 loss vs Miami Marlins
- June 28, 2024: 2-0 win over Miami Marlins
- June 29, 2024: 3-2 loss vs Miami Marlins
- June 30, 2024: 7-6 win over Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs Last 6
- June 25, 2024: 5-1 loss at San Francisco Giants
- June 26, 2024: 4-3 loss at San Francisco Giants
- June 27, 2024: 5-3 win (10 innings) at San Francisco Giants
- June 28, 2024: 4-2 loss at Milwaukee Brewers
- June 29, 2024: 5-3 win at Milwaukee Brewers
- June 30, 2024: 7-1 loss at Milwaukee Brewers
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Phillies Analysis: No Harper, No Schwarber, No Problem
Key Injuries
The Phillies are missing two big bats as Harper (.303 AVG, 20 HR, 58 RBI) and Schwarber (.250, 17 HR, 49 RBI) both landed on the IL on June 28. They’re also without catcher J.T. Realmuto (.261, 7 HR, 20 RBI), who underwent surgery on his right knee last month.
Betting Trends to Know
The Phillies are 45-39 against the run line, including 5-5 over their last 10 games. They’ve been a much bigger liability for Over/Under bettors, going just 36-43-5.
Cubs Analysis: Wesneski Takes on Bigger Role
Key Injuries
Hayden Wesneski has worked mostly as a reliever but got a spot start Wednesday against San Francisco. However, with Javier Assad landing on the 15-day IL with a forearm strain, Wesneski (2-4, 3.60 ERA) could be here to stay in the Cubs’ rotation.
Betting Trends to Know
The Cubs are 39-46 against the run line, matching their outright record. As for the Over/Under, Chicago is just 36-45-4.
That’s important to remember when assessing the Phillies vs Cubs betting odds and picks.
Phillies at Cubs Betting Prediction
The Phillies an underdog? Against the lowly Cubs? Say it ain’t so.
Sure, Mercado has no Major League track record. And even the worst teams in baseball generally win between 55-60 games each season.
That said, it’s hard to have any trust in Chicago, especially against the first-place Phillies. Thus, we’re grabbing the value and pouncing on the Phillies at +110 moneyline odds in our MLB picks today.
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