Reynaldo Lopez will look to continue his National League Cy Young campaign in the first game of a three-game series between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants.
Lopez, who will get the first game of this series, is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Lopez had been an afterthought with the White Sox, but the Braves took a chance on him in the offseason. They’re happy they did. He’s currently 6-2 with a 1.70 ERA and has been one of the main reasons for Atlanta’s success this year.
Meanwhile, the Giants can’t say the say same. They’re throwing out Hayden Birdsong in Game 1 of this series because their newly acquired ace pitcher, Blake Snell, has been unable to perform most of the season due to multiple injuries.
Therefore, the Braves are -196 heading into Game 1 of this series. The total is at 8.5, but the Over is juiced to -122 with Birdsong on the mound for the Giants.
Check out our Giants vs Braves betting odds and picks for this series opener below.
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Information & Pick
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves
Location of the game: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date & Time: Tuesday, July 2, 7:20 pm ET
Where to watch: Bally Sports South, NBCS BA
Giants vs Braves Picks
- Pick: Braves -1.5 (+106)
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Giants vs Braves Odds
Before we get into an in-depth analysis of the teams and predictions for the contest, check out the latest Giants vs Braves betting odds and MLB picks below.
Giants vs. Braves Betting Preview
Starting Pitchers
Hayden Birdsong (0-0, 5.79 ERA)
- Hayden Birdsong has just one start in his career, which came on June 26.
- On June 26 against the Chicago Cubs, Birdsong went 4.2 innings and allowed three runs on six hits and three walks.
- He allowed a .273 ISO and a .455 wOBA to righties in his first start.
Reynaldo Lopez (6-2, 1.70 ERA)
- Reynaldo Lopez is a candidate to win the National League Cy Young this season with a 1.70 ERA.
- Lopez has earned nearly 29% of strikeouts over the last 30 days.
- Lopez has allowed a .099 ISO and wOBA of .277 to his last 90 batters.
It’s hard to trust a starting pitcher making his second career start who is going up against one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season. Plus, the MLB team stats have also been better for the Braves.
Lopez has been extremely consistent and has even increased his strikeout rate over the last month. This is why Atlanta’s MLB odds BetUS have an implied chance of 66.2%.
Team Analysis
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants elected to DFA Spencer Howard and brought up Landen Roupp for pitching depth in the bullpen.
Meanwhile, the Giants have gone 5-5 over the last ten straight-up games and would’ve lost a $100 bettor $44 in that time. However, the Over has hit in eight of the last ten games for the Giants.
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves are also 5-5 over their last ten games straight up. However, the Braves have hit the Under in seven of their last ten games. A bettor looking to bet the Braves during the previous ten days would’ve lost $94. The Braves have been the heavier favorite in the past ten days and haven’t yielded as much return as the Giants in wins.
No Trust In Birdsong
While Hayden Birdsong has plenty of potential, his first start didn’t go entirely as planned. Birdsong didn’t even finish five innings against the Cubs and allowed nine base runners. He gave up six hits and three walks and allowed a 1.93 WHIP in that start.
That said, Birdsong was able to achieve five strikeouts. But those strikeouts mainly came against lefties. He only recorded 8.3% of strikeouts against righties.
There isn’t much MLB information on Birdsong. Therefore, we’ll have to trust his first-start stats and fade him.
On the other hand, Atlanta’s offense has hit a .155 ISO and wOBA of .280 against righties over the last 30 days. The offense hasn’t been as good as in recent seasons, but Jarred Kelenic, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnoud have shown off some power against righties over the last 30 days. Besides Kelenic, the lineup is full of veterans who will likely prepare well against a young starter like Birdsong.
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Could Lopez Regress?
Reynaldo Lopez is currently carrying a 1.70 ERA into this game. We’re almost at the All-Star break and practically halfway into the season.
He’s added nearly 29% of strikeouts and has held batters to 7.8% of walks over the last 30 days. He’s also limited damage, giving up an ISO of .099 and a wOBA of .277.
That said, Lopez could start to struggle a bit soon. He’s allowed more fly balls and line drives than ground balls induced in the last month. He’s also given up 49.1% of hard contact during the previous 30 days.
However, the projected lineup for the Giants has hit a .118 ISO and wOBA of .268. They’re no threat to Lopez. If Lopez faces an offense playing well against righties, he might struggle. But the Giants aren’t hitting well against righties.
Our Giants vs Braves betting odds and picks like the Braves at -1.5 (+106). Atlanta has plenty of potential against Birdsong, while Lopez will likely silence the Giants.
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