Pick Analysis
The Brisbane Broncos and Penrith Panthers square off in Round 18 of the NRL, and it’s one of the biggest games so far.
Following a rare loss, the Panthers look to rebound against a hurting Broncos side, which comes off four consecutive losses.
The Panthers are the -179 favorites, but our Broncos vs Panthers betting analysis has the Broncos pulling off an upset at home on Friday.
Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers Information
Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers
Location of the game: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia
Date & Time: Friday, July 5, 6:00am
Where to watch: NRL Live Streaming
Broncos vs Panthers Picks
- Pick: Brisbane Broncos +4.5
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Broncos vs Panthers Betting Analysis
Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
BetUS Odds | Broncos: +4½ -120 Panthers: -4½ -120 |
Broncos: +139 Panthers: -179 |
O 44½ -120 U 44½ -120 |
BetOnline Odds | Broncos: +4½ -115 Panthers: -4½ -115 |
Broncos: +142 Panthers: -172 |
O 45½ -106 U 45½ -124 |
MyBookie Odds | Broncos: +4½ -125 Panthers: -4½ -114 |
Broncos: +146 Panthers: -175 |
O 45½ -122 U 45½ -116 |
Bookmaker Odds | Broncos: +4½ -110 Panthers: -4½ -110 |
– | O 47½ -110 U 47½ -110 |
Following the return of their State of Origin players, we’re not surprised to see the Panthers favored to win.
They are -4.5 favorites as they welcome back the likes of Brian To’o, Dylan Edwards, and Jarome Luai.
There hasn’t been too much betting movement since markets opened. The Broncos are rock solid at +130 to win outright, and we expect more money to come for the Panthers on game day.
They are always a well-supported team, and having won the NRL Premiership three years running, they have class on their side.
However, bettors rarely get the Broncos at such a good price of +139 at Suncorp Stadium, which is why we’re giving them the betting edge.
Broncos vs Panthers Betting Preview & Updates
Our Broncos vs Panthers betting analysis looks at where the money could go, and most of the movement could come for the Panthers.
They are higher up on the NRL ladder, and welcoming back three of their best players from the New South Wales State of Origin team is big.
They’re still without Nathan Cleary to injury, but they have done well. However, after losing 16-6 to the North Queensland Cowboys, there could be some trepidation with NRL betting picks.
The Broncos have struggled recently, including a 32-16 loss to the New Zealand Warriors last week. However, as the market suggests, a much better performance at home is expected.
They are two public NRL betting teams, so there might not be much betting movement throughout the week.
Broncos vs Panthers Recent Scores
Broncos Last 4 Results
- Broncos 16 – Warriors 32
- Broncos 12 – Rabbitohs 22
- Broncos 12 – Sharks 22
- Broncos 34 – Titans 36
Panthers Last 4 Results
- Panthers 6 – Cowboys 16
- Panthers 26 – Knights 18
- Panthers 32 – Sea Eagles 22
- Panthers 10 – Dragons 22
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Broncos Analysis: Bucking the Trend
The Broncos don’t often lose four games on the bounce, so they need to turn around NRL statistics.
They are playing too bad to be true, and bringing back the likes of Patrick Carrigan, Reece Walsh, and Payne Haas could make the big difference.
It’s a repeat of the 2023 Grand Final, where the Brisbane Broncos were run down from a seemingly impossible position, so they want to get their revenge.
Key Injuries
Fletcher Baker and Jack Gosiewski miss the game.
Betting Trends to Know
There hasn’t been much movement for the Broncos, who opened at +4.5.
Panthers Analysis: Panthers on the Prowl
Despite being the favorites against the Cowboys last week, the Panthers scored just six points.
It was one of their worst defeats of the season, but there is no reason to panic for the recent three-time NRL champions.
Class is on their side, but the Penrith Panthers should expect a tough game against the Broncos, who measure up physically.
Covering a -4.5 spread could be tough, and it’s a game that could go either way.
Key Injuries
Mavrik Geyer misses the game, but he makes way for a stacked set of returning players.
To’o, Edwards, Luai, and Liam Martin return from Origin duty, and they bolster up the Panthers roster significantly.
Betting Trends to Know
Money usually comes for the Panthers, which could see the line change to -5.5.
That won’t make too much of a difference, and the odds of the Panthers winning by exactly five points is very low when betting on NRL.
Broncos vs Panthers Betting Prediction
Games between the Broncos and Panthers are usually close, and the Broncos have a 24-19 advantage historically.
Our Broncos vs Panthers betting analysis expects a close game, but we think the Broncos are good enough to keep it close.
They are the more desperate team following four losses on the bounce, and playing at home is a big advantage.
Getting +4.5 for a team with their backs against the wall is good shopping.
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