Spain vs Italy Game Preview & Pick
In a “Group of Death” matchup, Spain takes on defending champions Italy on Thursday in their second match of Euro 2024.
Italy and Spain could only be separated by penalties when they met at Euro 2020. Since then, Spain has added some exciting young players to their roster and are one of the most complete teams at the tournament.
Spain took down Croatia 3-0 in their opening match, while Italy had to pull off a comeback to defeat Albania 2-1. Spain have lost just one of their last 13 matches, in all competitions, while Italy have dropped just one of their last 12. Stick around for our Spain vs Italy Euro 2024 predictions.
Game Details and Betting Picks
Spain vs Italy Information
Spain vs Italy
Location of the game: Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen, Germany.
Date & Time: Thursday, June 20th, 3:00 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: FOX
Previous Meetings: Italy defeated Spain in penalties in Euro 2020 Semifinal. Spain have won both meetings since then (2-1 in 2021 and 2023 Nations League Semifinals)
Spain vs Italy Picks
- Pick: Over 2.5 (+115).
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Odds Breakdown
Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
BetUS | Spain -½ +115 Italy +½ -135 |
Spain: +115 Italy: +263 Draw: +226 |
O 2½ +115 U 2½ -135 |
BetNow | Spain pk, -½ -120 Italy pk, +½ Ev |
Spain: +115 Italy: +263 Draw: +226 |
O 2, 2½ -115 U 2, 2½ -105 |
MyBookie | Spain -½ +105 Italy +½ -146 |
Spain: +113 Italy: +250 Draw: +226 |
O 2½ +105 U 2½ -145 |
Bookmaker | Spain pk, -½ -125 Italy pk, +½ +102 |
Spain: +110 Italy: +270 Draw: +220 |
O 2, 2½ -118 U 2, 2½ -104 |
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Spain vs. Italy Betting Lines
BetUS betting line: Over 2.5 (+115)
The last two matches between Italy and Spain have finished 2-1 to Spain. This is not the Spain of old, who would tiki-taka their opponents to death after getting a lead.
La Roja have scored three goals in each of their last three competitive matches and one of our soccer predictions today is that we’ll see a few goals here.
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BetNow Betting line: Spain pk, -0.5 (-120)
This is a bit of a conservative pick but it rewards a Spain victory and returns half of the punters’ money if the match finishes level. While it’s unclear if Spain will take down Italy, Spain seem to have the edge and are playing with more confidence. They are the choice Spain vs Italy Euro 2024 prediction.
Unless Italy adjust their defensive structure, we expect Spain’s wingers to cause the Azzurri problems. The Euro 2024 odds price Spain pk, -0.5 at -120 and they’re unbeaten in each of their last three 90-minute games vs. Italy.
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MyBookie Betting line: Draw (+226)
Four of Italy’s matches vs. Spain in European Championships have finished in 90-minute draws and we wouldn’t be surprised if that were the case on Thursday.
Neither Spain nor Italy would be too fussed with a draw. If the match finishes level, they’re both likely to advance to the knockout stage regardless of what happens in their last Group Stage matches.
When these sides met last year, it took a late winner for Spain to take down Italy and one of our Spain vs Italy Euro 2024 predictions is that this will be a close match.
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Bookmaker Betting line: Both Teams to Score (-122)
Both teams have scored in each of the three meetings between Spain and Italy in the 2020s. In their last four matches, in all competitions, Spain have averaged four goals per game. Meanwhile, Italy found the net in seven of their eight qualifiers.
Spain’s defense could struggle with Gianluca Scamacca’s height and he’s gotta step up if Italy are to make a run at Euro 2024. Today’s picks and parlays could include BTTS at -122 when combined with a match result.
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Spain vs Italy Recent Trends
Spain’s Last Five:
- 3-0 win vs. Croatia(Euro 2024)
- 5-1 win vs. Northern Ireland (Friendly)
- 5-0 win vs. Andorra (Friendly)
- 3-3 draw vs. Brazil (Friendly)
- 1-0 loss vs. Colombia (Friendly)
Italy’s Last Five:
- 2-1 win vs. Albania (Euro 2024)
- 1-0 win vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (Friendly)
- 0-0 draw vs. Turkey (Friendly)
- 2-0 win vs. Ecuador (Friendly)
- 2-1 win vs. Venezuela (Friendly)
Spain vs Italy Best Bet: Over 2.5 (+115)
Spain were highly efficient vs. Croatia despite keeping less possession than their opponents in a competitive match for the first time since 2008.
We also think Italy pose a threat to a Spanish defense that hasn’t played together much at all. One of our most confident Spain vs. Italy Euro 2024 predictions is over 2.5 goals at +115 odds.
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