The next UFC fight to look at is this co-main event lightweight bout coming this weekend from Las Vegas. Top-15 lightweights Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson are putting a lot on the line to see who belongs in the top 10.
Read further for the betting analysis, along with the official Ismagulov vs Dawson prediction before making your bets this weekend.
Ismagulov vs. Dawson Information
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson
Location of the game: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.
Date and Time: Saturday, July 1. 7:00 PM ET
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Ismagulov is coming off his first UFC loss to the great Arman Tsarukyan last December.
Dawson is looking to continue his hot streak this weekend, coming off an impressive submission win over Mark Madsen last November.
Ismagulov vs. Dawson Betting Analysis
Damir Ismagulov
Ismagulov is a former 3-time M-1 lightweight champion with a ton of skills. If you are a champion in M-1, that means you have plenty of experience against some world-class competition. He is 32 years old and has an MMA record of 24-2 with 12 TKO/KO and 1 submission win.
The master of hand-to-hand combat in Russia takes quite the skillset into the UFC octagon. Ismagulov has averaged 3.78 sig. strikes landed and only 2.51 absorbed per minute in his UFC career so far. To go along with those striking numbers, he also averages 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and a solid 75% takedown defense.
Grant Dawson
Dawson has quietly risen through the UFC ranks into the top 15 with no losses on his UFC record. With a black belt in BJJ under the blacklisted James Krause, Dawson has found his new home at the American Top Team gym. So far at only age 29 he has accumulated a record of 19-1-1 with 17 finishes–including 13 submissions.
The Nebraskan native comes from a background of wrestling that seamlessly transferred over to starting martial arts training after high school. Dawson has averaged 3.12 sig. strikes landed and 2.41 absorbed per minute in the UFC. His main offensive attack is grappling where he averages 3.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes while throwing up 1.6 submissions in that time period as well.
Ismagulov vs. Dawson Betting Preview
UFC picks are very difficult to make when you see two guys at this high of a level competing in the octagon. They are both deserving to be in the top 10 but will need to go through each other to get there. This is a matchup that wouldn’t be surprising to see a few years down the line in a much bigger spotlight.
Currently, UFC odds have a mixed batch of who’s the betting favorite across all the major sportsbooks. Some have Imagulov at -120 and Dawson at -110, and some have those lines flipped. In this case, we can just call it a pick ‘em fight.
The over 2.5 rounds is currently at -220, which basically means oddsmakers assume this fight will go to the scorecards–even though both men have plenty of skill to finish fights.
Even though the Ismagulov vs Dawson prediction is difficult to make, there are plenty of prop betting lines that can give you great odds and an exciting Saturday night watching fights.
The most interesting odds have to be either of these guys winning a decision in plus money. This feels like the path to take with your bets, assuming that this fight goes to a decision.
Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson Betting Prediction
After breaking down this lightweight bout by watching old footage of fights and examining all the betting lines available; we have a pick to make.
- The official Ismagulov vs Dawson prediction is that Dawson will get the job done on the ground late in the fight, once again.
This trend might be running out of steam, but it’s really easy to see Dawson grinding this fight out in the first two rounds and submitting Ismagulov.
Ismagulov is the better striker with very solid defense and will probably potentially win the first two rounds on the scorecards. But once Dawson tires his opponents out, it seems inevitable that he will submit them under pressure in the final minutes.
The Dawson moneyline is plenty, but Dawson wins in round 3 at +1100 looks very good to make a long shot play on.
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