Croatia vs Italy Game Preview and Pick
On Monday, it’s straightforward for Croatia: win or go home. Meanwhile, defending champions Italy need a draw to advance to the knockout stage for a fifth straight European Championship.
The last three matches between these two teams have finished 1-1 and we think Italy could similarly crush Croatia’s dreams. We’ll discuss the Croatia vs Italy Euro 2024 betting trends ahead of a crucial Group B match. Our main pick is for punters to take a flier on the score finishing 1-1, at +550 odds.
Croatia vs Italy Information
Croatia vs Italy
Location: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany
Date & Time: Monday, June 24, 2024 3:00 p.m.
Where to watch: FOX
Croatia vs Italy Pick
![Soccer Logo Icon Black](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20width='0'%20height='0'%20viewBox='0%200%200%200'%3E%3C/svg%3E)
- Pick: Draw -104.
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Croatia and Italy Recent Scores
Croatia Last Five Matches
- 2-2 draw vs. Albania (Euro 2024)
- 3-0 loss vs. Spain (Euro 2024)
- 2-1 win at Portugal (Friendly)
- 3-0 win vs. North Macedonia (Friendly)
- 4-2 win at Egypt (2024 FIFA Series)
Italy Last Five Matches
- 1-0 loss vs. Spain (Euro 2024)
- 2-1 win vs. Albania (Euro 2024)
- 1-0 win vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (Friendly)
- 0-0 draw vs. Turkey (Friendly)
- 2-0 win vs. Ecuador (Friendly)
Croatia vs. Italy Recent Matches
Last Five Meetings:
- June 12th, 2015: Croatia 1-1 Italy (Euro 2016 Qualifier)
- November 16, 2014: Italy 1-1 Croatia (Euro 2016 Qualifier)
- June 14th, 2012: Italy 1-1 Croatia (Euro 2012 Group C)
- August 16th, 2006: Italy 0-2 Croatia (Friendly)
- June 8th, 2002: Italy 1-2 Croatia (2002 World Cup Group G)
The Croatia vs Italy Euro 2024 betting trends back Croatia to avoid defeat. The last three games between Croatia and Italy have finished level at one goal apiece. All-time Croatia are 3-5-1 versus Italy and the Vatreni’s only loss was in 1942.
Croatia vs Italy Betting Preview
Croatia Preview
![Croatia national football team logo](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20width='300'%20height='300'%20viewBox='0%200%20300%20300'%3E%3C/svg%3E)
Heading into the group stage finale, Croatia have managed a loss and a draw at Euro 2024. Croatia fell 3-0 to Spain in their opener, which prompted coach Zlatko Dalic to make two changes across his backline. In their second match, Croatia managed to get a 2-2 draw against Albania but conceded a devastating late equalizer.
Heading into this match, Croatia have lost just one of their last eight games. However, their defense has been poor recently. They’ve conceded five goals in two Euro 2024 matches. Plus, they don’t have a striker they’ve been able to count on consistently.
The pre-tournament UEFA Euro 2024 betting odds listed Croatia at +4000 to win the tournament but they’re on the brink of elimination now and also at +8000 outright odds.
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Italy Preview
![Italy Logo](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20width='300'%20height='300'%20viewBox='0%200%20300%20300'%3E%3C/svg%3E)
Italy managed a 2-1 comeback win over Albania in their first group-stage match. The Azzurri had excellent spells of possession and Nicolo Barella’s winning goal was a screamer. In their second match, Italy were second best in all areas and lost 1-0 to Spain.
Gianluigi Donnarumma made eight saves and kept the score from being ugly. Italy, like Croatia, have questions at striker but Gianluca Scamacca has led the line for the last two matches. Coach Luciano Spalletti started the same lineup on Thursday against Spain that he did in the opener.
On Monday, Spalletti may want to shake things up. He and the Azzurri know that they only need a draw to advance to the Round of 16 once again. Italy’s center backs, Alessandro Bastoni, and Riccardo Calafiori, have both looked solid, along with Donnarumma.
Croatia vs Italy Odds Breakdown
Team | Handicaps | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Croatia | pk, +½ -120 | +215 | O 2½ -110 |
Italy | pk, -½ Ev | +135 | U 2½ -110 |
Draw | +225 |
Italy are +135 favorites, which corresponds to a 40.5 percent chance of victory, without the vig. Meanwhile, Croatia are +215 underdogs. Bettors can find a draw at +225, which has occurred in the last three matches between these teams.
The goal line is Croatia pk, +0.5 (-120) and Italy pk, -0.5 (Ev). That means Euro bets, with no deposit bonus at various sportsbook, will return max value on Italy or Croatia if either side wins. The over/under total is set at 2.5 goals.
Croatia vs Italy Final Score Prediction
One of the highlighted Croatia vs. Italy Euro 2024 betting trend is that Croatia have conceded in three straight matches. We think they’ll struggle to keep a clean sheet here.
In typical Italian fashion, we think the Azzurri will do just enough to go on to the knockout stage and get a draw, no matter how ugly it may be. We like a draw, at +225, and particularly betting on a 1-1 result, at +550 as our soccer pick for this match.
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